Egypt: Here's my prediction

From a fruit peddler setting himself on fire in Tunisia, to people wanting overthrow their governments all over the middle east -- who would have thought?



The head of Tunisia skedaddled out of his palace and found refuge in Saudi Arabia. Isn't that where the syphilitic Idi Amin also found refuge? But I digress.



My guess is that Mubarak will hang in there -- at least until the end of the year. My friend, Arnold, gives him only a week. And, so, our wagers are in. (I've lost to Arnold before, so maybe he'll be proved correct. But, you never know. And, if I don't know, and if Arnold isn't sure of the outcome either, you can be confident that the talking heads don't have a clue.)



Some of the talking heads TH's) point to Tunisia and and extrapolate from there. But, that's ridiculous. Compared to Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen are pimples on the hindquarter of a camel.



I'm not saying that Mubarak was a great leader. Still the economic growth in Egypt clocked in at 7 percent over the last two years. That's really not too shabby. True, Egypt is said to be corrupt. But, is it any more corrupt than Mexico, or Russia, or ........... Believe me when I say, nations as corrupt as Egypt make for a very long list. Does that make it right? Of course, not. But, let's be a bit guarded in expressing with our indignation.



Violence toward the protesters: not good. But, presumably they knew where they were protesting; namely, Egypt. Is Egypt, as the protesters maintain, a totalitarian state? Think Russia tearing huge hunks of territory out of Georgia. Think of Tienemen Square and Chinese tanks. Some protests go well; think Lech Walensa and Poland. Some don't; think Iran.



Everyone agrees that the army is the dominant institution in Egypt. They, and Mubarak himself, know that they've got to deal the Egyptian people a new hand. But, they're going to do it on their terms. And, unless someone wants to go into Egypt and "teach the Egyptians a lesson," I think our "leaders" will have to content themselves with expressing their indignation and doing a lot of finger wagging.