Will The Turkish Model Fit Egypt

I must first cite remarks made by Dr. Magnus T. Bernhardsson at Florida Atlantic University on March 9, 2013, as having shed light for me on developments on the middle east.  While I've not quoted him here, I must nevertheless credit him for ideas that I've adopted.

Consider Turkey as a model for Morsi of Egypt.  Prior to Erdogan, the Turkish government would appear to veer this way and that.  If it got out of hand, the Turkish army took over and put the Turkish government back on a sound track.  The Turkish army was imbued with the values of Kemal Ataturk and it wanted to see those values preserved.  But, it did not want to govern.

There's a lot that's attractive to Morsi about this Turkish model.  But it also has some problems; problems that Erdogan may be successfully resolved for himself in Turkey.  Erdogan was not about to let the Turkish army be the arbiter as to what was best for Turkey.  That was a role he wanted for himself.  So what has he done?  He's neutered them by arresting over time all the leading military men that might have been in a position to take over Turkey if they were to become displeased with him.

Instead of allowing the Egyptian army to have an independent voice, as they once did in Turkey, Morsi would like to neuter them, the way Erdogan did.  But, will he succeed?

The Egyptian army can see Morsi's enchantment with the way Erdogan handled the Turkish army and they have no interest in being treated the same way by Morsi.  And, that explains a lot.

It explains why the Egyptian army has been flooding the tunnels into Gaza; something that is not positive for Hamas's interests and might even be seen as aiding Israel.  Hamas's rule of Gaza is somewhat in line with Morsi's way of thinking.  True, Hamas is currently more extreme.  But, if Morsi is looking for a partner, Hamas seems far more agreeable than his own army.  The Egyptian army understands that.  It is therefore in the interest of the Egyptian army to move against  Hamas anyway it can.

The U.S. understands the game too.  That's why it gave Egypt tanks and fighter planes.  These would do the Egyptians little good if they wanted to launch an attack against Israel.   But, what they do do is strengthen the image of the Egyptian army.  And, that's exactly what the U.S. wants to do.  They may say -- and rightly so -- that they're simply complying with the Camp David Agreements.  And, that's quite true.  But, don't fool yourself in thinking that that's America's primary motivation.  The U.S. wants the Egyptian army to play an important role in Egypt's future and they don't want to see it neutered by Morsi.