I'm not all that impressed with Joe Biden, but early on -- some years ago -- he said Iraq should be divided into three parts; namely, a part for the Kurds up north, a part for the Sunnis in the middle, and a part for the Shia down south. And, while l don't have a crystal ball this is what now seems to be happening except with a great deal more blood letting than was necessary.
Under Hussein, the Sunnis dominated Iraq. Then after knocking over Hussein, we turned it over to Maliki who ruled it in behalf of the Shia. Neither arrangement worked well. If the Croats, the Serbs, and the Muslims can's live in together in a place once called Yugoslavia, what makes anyone think that the Sunni, Shia and Kurds can pull off this trick in Iraq? We know Obama isn't very bright, but how do you account for the continuing stupidity of the U.S. Department of State? These were the same idiots who said that anyone in Iraq who had been in the Baath Party could no longer hold a government job. They couldn't be teachers, policemen, sanitation workers, etc. So what happened? The place went to hell.
When you're dealing with countries that have no tradition of democracy, it's going to come down to a contest between two extremes. In Chile it was the forces under Pinochet versus the leftists under Allende. In Egypt it was the Muslim Brotherhood versus the Army. And, in the middle of Iraq we set it up so that it would be the Sunnis versus the Shia. (The Kurds, for all practical purposes, had already set up their own government.)
Under Pinochet, Chile evolved into a nation that we would recognize as a democracy. In Egypt, with the defeat of the Muslim Brotherhood, the process has just begun. In the middle of lraq, an extremist group has entered into the fray to dislodge the Shia from lands traditionally Sunni. Should this come as a surprise? The question is whether once the Sunnis have secured the land traditionally theirs can secularism be again established? Or, will it become another Saudi Arabia? To be continued.
Evolution to democracy seems to take far longer under communist control. Look at Cuba.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Eric Cantor And Immigration
It would be wonderful to be a political talking head. They spew such nonsense and get paid so well for doing so. My apologies to exceptions such as Joe Scarborough.
Despite all the ridiculous explanations as to Eric Cantor's defeat in Virginia, it will not be the reason for an immigration bill to fail this session. Immigration may indeed fail to move forwards, but it has nothing to do with Cantor's defeat.
Cantor's defeat was due to a duffer's error. It's one he should never have made, but, regrettably, he did. He failed to campaign. He failed to organize town halls. He failed to visit Rotary meetings and the like. He failed to press the flesh. Why? His polling numbers showed him as a shoo in. Numbers can be useful, but they're not the end all and be all of politics. You've got to get out and campaign. You've got to get out and tell the citizens what you've done and what you hope to do in your next term. You can't do that sitting in Washington and think you can leave the heavy lifting to your ad campaign. Regrettably, no one explained this to Cantor.
As to immigration: That's a totally separate issue and one that's rarely presented properly to the American public. Everyone gets tied up with the word, "amnesty." That's ridiculous. The key to this problem is "borders." When a thousand unsupervised kids cross the border from Mexico into Texas, you know something's gone really wrong. If a kid can do it, presumably anyone can do it. What in the world is going on?
The president loves issuing his presidential initiatives. Why hasn't he issued one of his initiatives to close the borders? It doesn't require a ditch filled with alligators. Electronic fencing, drones and a few helicopters will do nicely. Anyone can get an immigration bill passed if they first assure the public that they have the will to seal the border. This administration has failed to show the American public that they have the will to do it.
My goodness, our president, can free five of the worst Taliban fighters we had in Guantanamo in exchange for a turncoat, but he can't free a hapless U.S. marine who took a wrong turn at the Mexican border and now rots in a Mexican prison. What sort of neighbor is this Mexico?
Doesn't anyone connect the dots?
Despite all the ridiculous explanations as to Eric Cantor's defeat in Virginia, it will not be the reason for an immigration bill to fail this session. Immigration may indeed fail to move forwards, but it has nothing to do with Cantor's defeat.
Cantor's defeat was due to a duffer's error. It's one he should never have made, but, regrettably, he did. He failed to campaign. He failed to organize town halls. He failed to visit Rotary meetings and the like. He failed to press the flesh. Why? His polling numbers showed him as a shoo in. Numbers can be useful, but they're not the end all and be all of politics. You've got to get out and campaign. You've got to get out and tell the citizens what you've done and what you hope to do in your next term. You can't do that sitting in Washington and think you can leave the heavy lifting to your ad campaign. Regrettably, no one explained this to Cantor.
As to immigration: That's a totally separate issue and one that's rarely presented properly to the American public. Everyone gets tied up with the word, "amnesty." That's ridiculous. The key to this problem is "borders." When a thousand unsupervised kids cross the border from Mexico into Texas, you know something's gone really wrong. If a kid can do it, presumably anyone can do it. What in the world is going on?
The president loves issuing his presidential initiatives. Why hasn't he issued one of his initiatives to close the borders? It doesn't require a ditch filled with alligators. Electronic fencing, drones and a few helicopters will do nicely. Anyone can get an immigration bill passed if they first assure the public that they have the will to seal the border. This administration has failed to show the American public that they have the will to do it.
My goodness, our president, can free five of the worst Taliban fighters we had in Guantanamo in exchange for a turncoat, but he can't free a hapless U.S. marine who took a wrong turn at the Mexican border and now rots in a Mexican prison. What sort of neighbor is this Mexico?
Doesn't anyone connect the dots?
Friday, June 6, 2014
When Friends Abandan You -- Pivot
America was and remains one of Israel's staunchest supporters. European support largely eroded because of ancient prejudices and modern multiculturalism. This is relevant in light of the Islamic fundamentalist's fervent hopes and wishes that a mighty Nakba will be visited on Israel and its people.
Unfortunaely, with the current administration's foreign policy, matters become more complicated. The American people continue to support Israel. Unfortunately, this posture doesn't seem reflected in the posture of the administration which now seems to be identifying itself most closely with European attitudes.
A few facts: France is proceeding with the construction of advanced battle vessels for the Russians. Why should they take the brunt of the damage that would result to their economy by now scuttling this enormous contract? Germany is reluctant to make any serious moves against Russia because of its dependance on Russian gas and oil.
Israel ordered some ships from German ship yards. Germany now appears to be in the process of rejecting these order because of Israel's intensions to build homes beyond the Green Line.
What the Europeans conveniently forget is that the current status between Israel and the Palestinians (Call it the Peace Process if you will, but it has precious little to do with "peace.") has stemmed from the Oslo Accord entered into by Israel and the Palestinians. What the Palestinians -- more precisely, Arafat -- got from Oslo was the right to establish the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank. What the Israelis got was (1) relinquishing the need to administer most of the affairs of the Palestinians and (2) to leave the boundaries for further negotiations.
The problem is that there was little incentive for Arafat to negotiate the final borders. He was getting lots of money for himself and his extended family. That situation didn't change with the ascendancy of Abbas.
Europeans have decided, on no legal basis, that the boundaries should be such-and-such. Their opinions on these matters strongly favor the Palestinians. Now it appears our administration is leaning in the same direction as the Europeans.
So what is Israel to do? I'm not sure I know, but I do feel I see where they are going. I see them turning to Russia and China. (Note: Israel did not support an American resolution in the UN on Crimea and the Ukraine. Israel's excuse: their foreign service was on strike at the time and they couldn't cross picket lines. Really! Note: Israel and China have agreed on a very large research development institute to be located in China and staffed by Chinese and Israelis.)
I realize full well that the Russians and the Chinese don't share America's values. Putin's move on Crimea was pretty much the moves of Hitler in his Anschluss with Austria. (Had Hitler played his cards right, Austria today might be a part of Germany.) And, what's China doing sitting on Tibet? But, even more frightening, what's China doing claiming an entire ocean? Scary. Then too the internal legal systems of these two nations seem, to put it kindly, under developed.
But look at it from Israel's point of view. Historically, Ukraine never had much use for Jews. And, however the Russians-speakers got there, those in Crimea seemed to have favored breaking away from Ukraine and becoming a part of Russia. It's not a situation in which Israel needs to get itself caught up in. And, as far as China goes, the ocean to which China is laying claim is very far from Israel.
And, what do the Arabs have to offer Russia and China. In the case of China, the answer is easy: oil.
But China's been taking care of its oil needs. They recently concluded a huge deal with the Russians for Russian oil. It's true that China buys a lot of oil from the Middle East. But, the Middle East has the same need to sell to China as China has a need to buy. China is trying to reduce their need for coal. Maybe they're concerned with pollution. However, our administration's attack on coal as a fuel might also have given the Chinese some second thoughts.
Although Iran would seem to be a competitor to the Russians in the oil market, what are the Iranians doing with their oil money? Why, of course, they're buying weapons from Russia.
Then consider the Saudis. Their interests seem to line up better with those of Israel then they do with those of the current American administration.
So what are Israel's choices? What China wants is the latest in technology and the means to get on top of technology issues. Israel has a track record and China knows this. That could make for a great relationship between China and Israel. What does Russia want? Petty much the same as China. They do have one other interest; namely, a finger in Israel's new found energy pie. And, here, Israel seems willing to play with them in a manner agreeable to the Russians.
And, where do the Palestinians fit into all of this. They're still counting on the Europeans and, now, the Americans to support them. Let me ask you? If you knew you were getting into a knife fight, who would you want to have on your side? The Europeans and the Americans, or the Russians and the Chinese? You and I don't have to answer this question, but the Israelis do.
Unfortunaely, with the current administration's foreign policy, matters become more complicated. The American people continue to support Israel. Unfortunately, this posture doesn't seem reflected in the posture of the administration which now seems to be identifying itself most closely with European attitudes.
A few facts: France is proceeding with the construction of advanced battle vessels for the Russians. Why should they take the brunt of the damage that would result to their economy by now scuttling this enormous contract? Germany is reluctant to make any serious moves against Russia because of its dependance on Russian gas and oil.
Israel ordered some ships from German ship yards. Germany now appears to be in the process of rejecting these order because of Israel's intensions to build homes beyond the Green Line.
What the Europeans conveniently forget is that the current status between Israel and the Palestinians (Call it the Peace Process if you will, but it has precious little to do with "peace.") has stemmed from the Oslo Accord entered into by Israel and the Palestinians. What the Palestinians -- more precisely, Arafat -- got from Oslo was the right to establish the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank. What the Israelis got was (1) relinquishing the need to administer most of the affairs of the Palestinians and (2) to leave the boundaries for further negotiations.
The problem is that there was little incentive for Arafat to negotiate the final borders. He was getting lots of money for himself and his extended family. That situation didn't change with the ascendancy of Abbas.
Europeans have decided, on no legal basis, that the boundaries should be such-and-such. Their opinions on these matters strongly favor the Palestinians. Now it appears our administration is leaning in the same direction as the Europeans.
So what is Israel to do? I'm not sure I know, but I do feel I see where they are going. I see them turning to Russia and China. (Note: Israel did not support an American resolution in the UN on Crimea and the Ukraine. Israel's excuse: their foreign service was on strike at the time and they couldn't cross picket lines. Really! Note: Israel and China have agreed on a very large research development institute to be located in China and staffed by Chinese and Israelis.)
I realize full well that the Russians and the Chinese don't share America's values. Putin's move on Crimea was pretty much the moves of Hitler in his Anschluss with Austria. (Had Hitler played his cards right, Austria today might be a part of Germany.) And, what's China doing sitting on Tibet? But, even more frightening, what's China doing claiming an entire ocean? Scary. Then too the internal legal systems of these two nations seem, to put it kindly, under developed.
But look at it from Israel's point of view. Historically, Ukraine never had much use for Jews. And, however the Russians-speakers got there, those in Crimea seemed to have favored breaking away from Ukraine and becoming a part of Russia. It's not a situation in which Israel needs to get itself caught up in. And, as far as China goes, the ocean to which China is laying claim is very far from Israel.
And, what do the Arabs have to offer Russia and China. In the case of China, the answer is easy: oil.
But China's been taking care of its oil needs. They recently concluded a huge deal with the Russians for Russian oil. It's true that China buys a lot of oil from the Middle East. But, the Middle East has the same need to sell to China as China has a need to buy. China is trying to reduce their need for coal. Maybe they're concerned with pollution. However, our administration's attack on coal as a fuel might also have given the Chinese some second thoughts.
Although Iran would seem to be a competitor to the Russians in the oil market, what are the Iranians doing with their oil money? Why, of course, they're buying weapons from Russia.
Then consider the Saudis. Their interests seem to line up better with those of Israel then they do with those of the current American administration.
So what are Israel's choices? What China wants is the latest in technology and the means to get on top of technology issues. Israel has a track record and China knows this. That could make for a great relationship between China and Israel. What does Russia want? Petty much the same as China. They do have one other interest; namely, a finger in Israel's new found energy pie. And, here, Israel seems willing to play with them in a manner agreeable to the Russians.
And, where do the Palestinians fit into all of this. They're still counting on the Europeans and, now, the Americans to support them. Let me ask you? If you knew you were getting into a knife fight, who would you want to have on your side? The Europeans and the Americans, or the Russians and the Chinese? You and I don't have to answer this question, but the Israelis do.
Monday, June 2, 2014
Brussels Jew Murderer Follows The Pattern
They caught the murderer of Jews in the Brussels Jewish Museum. Mehdi Nemmouche was his name.
His life confirms the pattern by which a Muslim turns into a Jew-hater and murderer:
1. The Muslim finds himself growing in religiosity.
2. He encounters a personal economic crisis that he attributes to discrimination against Muslims.
3. Ideological radicalization occurs under the influence of a local preacher.
4. Enlistment in a terror organization.
If Muslims in America wish to shed the taint of any connection to radical Islam, they must intervene in "1" and "3" above. In the case of "1," it's their responsibility to guide anyone moving towards greater religiosity onto a path of peace. In the case of "3", it is their responsibility to neutralize the influence of local preachers who would lead Muslims down a path of fundamentalism.
Muslims in America probably have little, or no, influence over outside terror organizations. Also, to counsel against increased religiosity would, no doubt, violate basic tenets of their faith. But what they can do, as mentioned above, is not inconsequential.
His life confirms the pattern by which a Muslim turns into a Jew-hater and murderer:
1. The Muslim finds himself growing in religiosity.
2. He encounters a personal economic crisis that he attributes to discrimination against Muslims.
3. Ideological radicalization occurs under the influence of a local preacher.
4. Enlistment in a terror organization.
If Muslims in America wish to shed the taint of any connection to radical Islam, they must intervene in "1" and "3" above. In the case of "1," it's their responsibility to guide anyone moving towards greater religiosity onto a path of peace. In the case of "3", it is their responsibility to neutralize the influence of local preachers who would lead Muslims down a path of fundamentalism.
Muslims in America probably have little, or no, influence over outside terror organizations. Also, to counsel against increased religiosity would, no doubt, violate basic tenets of their faith. But what they can do, as mentioned above, is not inconsequential.
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