When Friends Abandan You -- Pivot

America was and remains one of Israel's staunchest supporters.  European support largely eroded because of ancient prejudices and modern multiculturalism.  This is relevant in light of the Islamic fundamentalist's fervent hopes and wishes that a mighty Nakba will be visited on Israel and its people.

Unfortunaely, with the current administration's foreign policy, matters become more complicated.  The American people continue to support Israel.  Unfortunately, this posture doesn't seem reflected in the posture of the administration which now seems to be identifying itself most closely with European attitudes.

A few facts:  France is proceeding with the construction of advanced battle vessels for the Russians. Why should they take the brunt of the damage that would result to their economy by now scuttling this enormous contract?  Germany is reluctant to make any serious moves against Russia because of its dependance on Russian gas and oil.

Israel ordered some ships from German ship yards.  Germany now appears to be in the process of rejecting these order because of Israel's intensions to build homes beyond the Green Line.

What the Europeans conveniently forget is that the current status between Israel and the Palestinians (Call it the Peace Process if you will, but it has precious little to do with "peace.") has stemmed from the Oslo Accord entered into by Israel and the Palestinians.  What the Palestinians -- more precisely, Arafat -- got from Oslo was the right to establish the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank.  What the Israelis got was (1) relinquishing the need to administer most of the affairs of the Palestinians and (2) to leave the boundaries for further negotiations.

The problem is that there was little incentive for Arafat to negotiate the final borders.  He was getting lots of money for himself and his extended family.  That situation didn't change with the ascendancy of Abbas.

Europeans have decided, on no legal basis, that the boundaries should be such-and-such.  Their opinions on these matters strongly favor the Palestinians.  Now it appears our administration is leaning in the same direction as the Europeans.

So what is Israel to do?  I'm not sure I know, but I do feel I see where they are going.  I see them turning to Russia and China.  (Note: Israel did not support an American resolution in the UN on Crimea and the Ukraine.  Israel's excuse:  their foreign service was on strike at the time and they couldn't cross picket lines.  Really!  Note: Israel and China have agreed on a very large research development institute to be located in China and staffed by Chinese and Israelis.)

I realize full well that the Russians and the Chinese don't share America's values.  Putin's move on Crimea was pretty much the moves of Hitler in his Anschluss with Austria.  (Had Hitler played his cards right,  Austria today might be a part of Germany.)  And, what's China doing sitting on Tibet?  But, even more frightening, what's China doing claiming an entire ocean?  Scary.  Then too the internal legal systems of these two nations seem, to put it kindly, under developed.

But look at it from Israel's point of view.  Historically, Ukraine never had much use for Jews.  And, however the Russians-speakers got there, those in Crimea seemed to have favored breaking away from Ukraine and becoming a part of Russia.   It's not a situation in which Israel needs to get itself caught up in.  And, as far as China goes, the ocean to which China is laying claim is very far from Israel.

And, what do the Arabs have to offer Russia and China.  In the case of China, the answer is easy:  oil.
But China's been taking care of its oil needs.  They recently concluded a huge deal with the Russians for Russian oil.  It's true that China buys a lot of oil from the Middle East.  But, the Middle East has the same need to sell to China as China has a need to buy.  China is trying to reduce their need for coal.  Maybe they're concerned with pollution.  However, our administration's attack on coal as a fuel might also have given the Chinese some second thoughts.

Although Iran would seem to be a competitor to the Russians in the oil market, what are the Iranians doing with their oil money?  Why, of course, they're buying weapons from Russia.

Then consider the Saudis.  Their interests seem to line up better with those of Israel then they do with those of the current American administration.

So what are Israel's choices?  What China wants is the latest in technology and the means to get on top of technology issues.  Israel has a track record and China knows this.  That could make for a great relationship between China and Israel.  What does Russia want?  Petty much the same as China.  They do have one other interest; namely, a finger in Israel's new found energy pie.  And, here, Israel seems willing to play with them in a manner agreeable to the Russians.

And, where do the Palestinians fit into all of this.  They're still counting on the Europeans and, now, the Americans to support them.  Let me ask  you?  If you knew you were getting into a knife fight, who would you want to have on your side?  The Europeans and the Americans, or the Russians and the Chinese?  You and I don't have to answer this question, but the Israelis do.