The Crashing Stupidity of U.S. Foreign Policy

I listened to John Kerry on Morning Joe this morning, Sept 29, 2015 and was aghast at his, and by extension, Obama's, view of the world and his vision as to how the U.S. can best restore world order to Syria.  He doesn't have a clue as to how things work.

Consider Russia as guided by Putin.  Here is a man who knows what he wants and how he intends to get it.  In the Middle East it's all about oil.  That's really all it's ever been about.  You can talk "green" all you want.  The fact remains that cars, planes, ships at sea, home heating and industrial equipment will for the foreseeable future remain dependent on fossil fuels.  It's nice that people are developing solar energy, windmills and what not, but fossil fuels will be with us for a very long time -- global warming or not.  And, by "us" I include China, India and Europe.

Control the supply of gas and oil and you've got your hand on the global throat.  Putin knows that the only thing that's kept Russia afloat is Russia's oil and gas on which Europe is to a large extent dependent.  Suppose he had a finger on the oil and gas available from Iran, from Iraq, from the Gulf States and from Syria.  There's not much supposing about it and what it would do for Russia's standing in the world.

So how  best for Russia to insert itself into the Middle East?  The emergence of ISIL -- largely resulting from American stupidity -- gave Putin the perfect "in."  He will now hugely expand his presence in the Middle East by promising to destroy ISIL.  If he succeeds in that, does anyone really believe he'll pack up his fighter planes, his tanks, his rockets, and his troops and return to Russia?

But Putin not only thinks in terms of grand global strategy.  He's also thoughtful as regards his tactics.  Initially his entrance into Syria was justified by the need to destroy ISIL.  But supposing he succeeds?  How does he get to remain in the Middle East?  Why of course, through the invitation of Bashar al Assad, the titular head of Syria.  Does Russia care that Assad has been a human rights disaster for the Syrian people?  Does Russia worry that there will ultimately follow an open and fair election in Syria for finding a successor to Assad?

All the other pieces will then fall nicely into place for the Russians.  The Sunnis in Syria, though currently a majority will be ground to dust by the Russian war machine.  This will happen through the assistance of the Iranians, who will act directly, or through the Iraqis with their Shiite led military.  And, on the western side of Syria, Russia can rely on Hezbollah.

And, to all of this Kerry and Obama seem to be blind.

Under current circumstances, the worst thing any country in the Middle East once reliant on the U.S. can do is to continue relying on the U.S.