Why Romney Will Lose To Obama

Sad to say it.  Indeed, hate to say it, but Romney is going to lose in November and here's why:

1. The women's vote
Romney needs the fervent support of the Christian fundamentalists and these people are solidly for right-to-life.  Women don't really care that no one can reverse the tide on this issue and on women's rights generally.  They believe that "potentially" this right will be restricted.  Romney can't say what I just did; namely, let's leave it in the platform but let's also promptly forget it.  Romney can't even say that when he governed Massachusetts and the issue never arose.  But, of course, that's the truth.

2 America's really tough and vitally important issues

Jobs, jobs, jobs  --- the trick here is to get the economy moving upwards again.  But, here there's a problem for Romney.  Obama says pretty much the same thing.  It's only that his background music is a little different.  Obama says he'll institute job building programs (echoes of FDR).  And, he'll tax the rich to build the middle class.  And, also, no one will see their medicare threatened.  The crowds cheer.

So what is Romney going to say?  That job programs may sound terrific, but that they really don't work.  (They didn't work for FDR either, even though they did result in a lot of good country music and some nice murals).  People aren't going to be much enthused hearing this.

Is Romney going to tell people that "taxing the rich" may appeal to people out of work, but it gets the country nowhere.  It certainly does nothing for the economy, and it doesn't even bring in nearly the amount of money that's needed to revitalize the economy and pay for our extraordinarily large  entitlements.  What he ought to explain is that he is for fairness, and that the quickest way of getting to fairness is to reform our tax code.  But, here again, you have a subject that makes the average American's eyes glaze over.

And, here's the humdinger -- is Romney going to explain that our entitlements simply must be pared back?  What!  You mean I'm going to have to pay more for healthcare?  What, when I'm on my death bed at 99, I won't be able to get a liver transplant?  What, when I give birth to a child born without critical organs and about to die, you won't put that child on a mechanical device to squeeze a few more day's out of the infant?  And, here's perhaps the biggest outrage:  You're now telling me that for the conditions just mentioned you won't let me bring a million dollar lawsuit against the doctors and their hospital?  (Enter America's lawyers.)

The reason Romney won't win on jobs, jobs, jobs (JJJ) is because to do so you've got to tackle entitlements, entitlements, entitlements (EEE).  People want JJJ but no one should touch their EEE.
There's nothing really new about this.  When you see Greeks or Spaniards rioting in the street, it's all about EEE.  Do they have jobs?  No.  Unemployment for their youth is about 50%.  They've gone way over the edge on EEE.  In fact, economic realities being what they are, they are going to suffer significant losses of EEE, regardless of what their governments wish to do. or don't wish to do.  Germans, whose governments have pared back on EEE and who consequently have the JJJ aren't of a mind to have their country's hard won wealth go to shore up their profligate cousins.

3. The Issue of Illegal Immigrants

This issue beautifully illustrates why Romney can't win.  The issue of illegal immigrants, especially as it concerns Mexican immigrants, has been with us for a long time.  John McCain and Ted Kennedy worked on a bill to resolve it many years ago.  Had they pursued it a bit longer, the issue might have been taken care of.

The immigrant issue is basically a two part problem; namely, working out an amnesty for illegal immigrants and, secondly, getting control of our border with Mexico.  With his political smarts, Obama skimmed the cream off this issue by giving a limited amnesty for a special slice of the immigrant population.  He knew that Americans, being a generous people, would accept a fair minded amnesty program.  And, indeed, they have.  But, the important problem of securing America's borders has been left pretty much as it was.  Be that as it may, Obama's move garnered him great PR with Latinos. It also cornered Romney.  The border with Mexico is still a big problem, but now, whoever has the guts to deal with it, finds himself, or herself, without an important lever (or "carrot" if you prefer) to work with.

Whenever he can, we see Obama circumventing Congress.  Small wonder then that he then gets so little cooperation from Congress  But that's neither here nor there.  It's Congress that gets blamed for not being cooperative.

4. Foreign affairs

Okay, so what have been Obama's accomplishments?  Early on, upon entering office, he went on a tour throughout the middle east.  What have been the results?  A dead ambassador in Libya, an Egyptian president who heads the Islamic Brotherhood, and who, despite a stint at an American college, still doesn't grasp the concept of freedom of expression.  The Russians view Obama as a boob.  And, I'm not sure what interaction he's had with the Chinese.

It's been noted that he gives great speeches.  Even I was highly impressed by his recent speech at the UN.  But, he seems to have difficulty establishing one-on-one relations with world leaders.  Be that as it may, mostly the voters don't care.  Those Americans, who probably care most, are our troops.  They see first hand the consequences of Obama's foreign policy, or the lack thereof.  And, I would guess they are not great supporters of Obama.

5. Israel

I've separated Israel from "foreign affairs", because while it is one of Obama's biggest foreign policy disasters, it's one for which he's never been called to account, or suffered much in terms of declining voter support.  That his policies regarding Israel are a disaster is clear.  He travels through the middle east and bypasses America's staunchest ally.  He shows himself to have a deaf ear as to the Israeli-Palestinian problem, and then puts his thumb on the Palestinian side of the scales.

How does he get away with it?  Two reasons:  Military cooperation between America and Israel, has been excellent.  It's yielded both forces numerous advantages and I believe Americans understand this.

Then there's the mind set of liberal Jews.  Among their ranks are many young Jews who have a weak sense of their people's history and the importance of their support for Israel.  Then too, Jews are divided into factions; namely, Reform, Conservative, and Orthodox.  Or, more simply, religiously observant Jews and secular Jews

All Jews, especially Reform and Conservative, or secular Jews, are proud, and rightfully so, of their work to help Martin Luther King free African-Americans from Jim Crow.  They not only contributed money to this cause, they also rolled up their sleeves and got into the thick of it.  Some paid with their lives.  To have a minority person in the White House is seen by them as one of their greatest achievements.  Mighty Israel in their mind is surely safe, but the rights of minorities still rallies their support.  They fail to see that even Nelson Mandela's  legacy in South Africa has its flaws.  The League of Non-Aligned Nations, various Durban Conferences and the pronouncements of Rev. Tutu come to mind.

The number of Jewish votes that Romney can peel away from liberal Jewish block is woefully small.  Thank goodness for the support given to Israel by America's Evangelical Christians.  They, by and large, are Romney supporters.